Defining minimum volume thresholds to increase quality of care: a new patient-oriented approach using mixed integer programming

A positive relationship between treatment volume and outcome quality has been demonstrated in the literature and is thus evident for a variety of procedures. Consequently, policy makers have tried to translate this so-called volume–outcome relationship into minimum volume regulation (MVR) to increase the quality of care—yet with limited success. Until today, the effect of strict MVR application remains unclear as outcome quality gains cannot be estimated adequately and restrictions to application such as patient travel time and utilization of remaining hospital capacity are not considered sufficiently. Accordingly, when defining MVR, its effectiveness cannot be assessed. Thus, we developed a mixed integer programming model to define minimum volume thresholds balancing utility in terms of outcome quality gain and feasibility in terms of restricted patient travel time and utilization of hospital capacity. We applied our model to the German hospital sector and to four surgical procedures. Results showed that effective MVR needs a minimum volume threshold of 125 treatments for cholecystectomy, of 45 and 25 treatments for colon and rectum resection, respectively, of 32 treatments for radical prostatectomy and of 60 treatments for total knee arthroplasty. Depending on procedure type and incidence as well as the procedure’s complication rate, outcome quality gain ranged between 287 (radical prostatectomy) and 977 (colon resection) avoidable complications (11.7% and 11.9% of all complications). Ultimately, policy makers can use our model to leverage MVR’s intended benefit: concentrating treatment delivery to improve the quality of care.

     

PREDICT-GTN 1: Can we improve the FIGO scoring system in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia?

Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients are treated according to the eight-variable International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) scoring system, that aims to predict first-line single-agent chemotherapy resistance. FIGO is imperfect with one-third of low-risk patients developing disease resistance to first-line single-agent chemotherapy. We aimed to generate simplified models that improve upon FIGO. Logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) modelling (n = 4191) generated six models (M1-6). M1, all eight FIGO variables (scored data); M2, all eight FIGO variables (scored and raw data); M3, nonimaging variables (scored data); M4, nonimaging variables (scored and raw data); M5, imaging variables (scored data); and M6, pretreatment hCG (raw data) + imaging variables (scored data). Performance was compared to FIGO using true and false positive rates, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Bland-Altman calibration plots, decision curve analysis and contingency tables. M1-6 were calibrated and outperformed FIGO on true positive rate and positive predictive value. Using LR and MLP, M1, M2 and M4 generated small improvements to the ROC curve and decision curve analysis. M3, M5 and M6 matched FIGO or performed less well. Compared to FIGO, most (excluding LR M4 and MLP M5) had significant discordance in patient classification (McNemar's test P < .05); 55-112 undertreated, 46-206 overtreated. Statistical modelling yielded only small gains over FIGO performance, arising through recategorisation of treatment-resistant patients, with a significant proportion of under/overtreatment as the available data have been used a priori to allocate primary chemotherapy. Streamlining FIGO should now be the focus.     

Limited clinical activity of palbociclib and ribociclib monotherapy in advanced cancers with cyclin D-CDK4/6 pathway alterations in the Dutch DRUP and Australian MoST trials

The Dutch Drug Rediscovery Protocol (DRUP) and the Australian Cancer Molecular Screening and Therapeutic (MoST) Program are similar nonrandomized, multidrug, pan-cancer trial platforms that aim to identify signals of clinical activity of molecularly matched targeted therapies or immunotherapies outside their approved indications. Here, we report results for advanced or metastatic cancer patients with tumors harboring cyclin D-CDK4/6 pathway alterations treated with CDK4/6 inhibitors palbociclib or ribociclib. We included adult patients that had therapy-refractory solid malignancies with the following alterations: amplifications of CDK4, CDK6, CCND1, CCND2 or CCND3, or complete loss of CDKN2A or SMARCA4. Within MoST, all patients were treated with palbociclib, whereas in DRUP, palbociclib and ribociclib were assigned to different cohorts (defined by tumor type and alteration). The primary endpoint for this combined analysis was clinical benefit, defined as confirmed objective response or stable disease ≥16 weeks. We treated 139 patients with a broad variety of tumor types; 116 with palbociclib and 23 with ribociclib. In 112 evaluable patients, the objective response rate was 0% and clinical benefit rate at 16 weeks was 15%. Median progression-free survival was 4 months (95% CI: 3-5 months), and median overall survival 5 months (95% CI: 4-6 months). In conclusion, only limited clinical activity of palbociclib and ribociclib monotherapy in patients with pretreated cancers harboring cyclin D-CDK4/6 pathway alterations was observed. Our findings indicate that monotherapy use of palbociclib or ribociclib is not recommended and that merging data of two similar precision oncology trials is feasible.     

Pre-COVID-19 Social Determinants of Health Among Mexican Migrants in Los Angeles and New York City and Their Increased Vulnerability to Unfavorable Health Outcomes During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health - COVID-19 has disproportionally affected underrepresented minorities (URM) and low-income immigrants in the United States. The aim of the study is to...     

Verbesserte Qualität gelagerter Erythrozytenkonzentrate durch maschinelle Autotransfusion

Die Anaesthesiologie - Die Transfusion von Erythrozytenkonzentraten (EK) ist mit verschiedenen Nebenwirkungen assoziiert, die u. a. durch Lagerungsschäden an Erythrozyten hervorgerufen...     

Personal comorbidities and their subsequent risks for liver,gallbladder and bile duct cancers

Many environmental risk factors for hepatobiliary cancers are known but whether they are associated with specific cancer types is unclear. We present here a novel approach of assessing standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of previously diagnosed comorbidities for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), gallbladder cancer (GBC), cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) and ampullary cancer. The 13 comorbidities included alcohol and nonalcohol related liver disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, gallstone disease, viral and other kinds of hepatitis, infection of bile ducts, hepatic and other autoimmune diseases, obesity and diabetes. Patients were identified from the Swedish Inpatient Register from 1987 to 2018, and their cancers were followed from 1997 onwards. SIRs for HCC were 80 to 100 in men and women diagnosed with hepatitis C virus and they were also >10 in patients diagnosed with hepatitis B virus, other kind of hepatitis, hepatic autoimmune disease and nonalcohol related liver disease. Many of these risks, as well as alcohol related liver disease, were either specific to HCC or were shared with intrahepatic CCA. For GBC, CCA and ampullary cancer infection of bile ducts was the main risk factor. Gallstone disease, nonhepatic autoimmune diseases and diabetes were associated with all hepatobiliary cancers. The limitations of the study include inability to cover some rare risk factors and limited follow-up time. Many of the considered comorbidities are characterized by chronic inflammation and/or overt immune disturbance in autoimmune diseases. The results suggest that local chronic inflammation and a related immune disturbance is the carcinogenic trigger for all these cancers.